Tag Archives: #bankruptcy

Covid 19 the Big One and good Cash management

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Covid 19 the Big One and good Cash management. The Big One is the name given to the earthquake which should one day engulf California if the forecasts of the seismologists are realized. In economic matters, the first half of 2020 probably has the status of Big One. An unprecedented global economic crisis that will take a significant toll financially. The slow emergence of containment that is emerging will put Cash at the center of business concerns. Neither profitability, nor productivity, nor the development of turnover will save companies, it will be Cash.

Approaching this subject with tools before the Covid 19 crisis is a mistake.

All indicators are broken and inaccurate; payment incidents are no longer recorded by the Banque de France, balance sheets are not closed, tax deadlines are postponed, social charges are not paid and payment behaviour is modified due to cash loans guaranteed by the State. However, all analyses, databases and decision-making tools are based on these indicators which will be at least inaccurate for several months.

For everyone, suppliers, customers and consumers, it is essential that economic activity restart. Questions will then arise relating to late payments and supplier credit limits to be set up for new deliveries. It is customer supplier relationships that will have to be reinvented to ensure that all economic players have a sufficient mattress of Cash to overcome this crisis, and those that should follow, according to some experts.

After the end of the lockdown the solution will not be to jump to the throat of customers who are late in their payments. We must invent a new partnership based on new deadlines and means of payment. Suppliers will have to support their customers by delivering goods on credit, customers will have to agree to pay on a regular basis even if they spread their payments differently. To date, the regulatory deadline for paying invoices is 60 days with a large due date. At the end of the lockdown it would be useful to extend the time allowed from 30 to 60 days but by establishing, for example, partial regulations every 2 weeks. It would be a “win / win” solution where the supplier anticipates part of their cash flow and the customer finances their purchases in a smooth and spread out manner. A real dialogue will have to be engaged between supplier and customer to weave a regular and trusting relationship.

Companies after the lockdown will have to focus on their core business, the production or purchase of products as well as their marketing. It has never been so useful to outsource Cash Management which consumes time and resources when done in-house. And this is one of the reasons why some companies are abandoning this approach, which is essential if they want to survive the troubled times ahead.

In France, the number of companies having been the subject of a bankruptcy procedure decreased

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decrease of bankruptcies in France

In France, the number of companies having been the subject of a bankruptcy procedure decreased by 4.8% last year compared to 2018. There were 52,000 failures in 2019. These are 2,500 companies less than in 2018 who went to bankruptcy or were placed in receivership or safeguard proceedings. In the fourth quarter of 2019 alone, the decline even accelerated.  The improvement is visible in almost all trades. The number of liquidations has dropped significantly. In construction, trade, industry, business and personal services, and catering, bankruptcy is declining sharply. Road freight transport and IT and communications are sectors which experienced an increase in bankruptcy last year. One of the explanations for this good overall performance in 2019 is that household consumption held up even if it was not as dynamic as we might have expected. The domestic economic context is rather better than that of our neighbours. Job creation is still strong in 2019, which also contributed to good economic activity. Second, interest rates are still very low, which helps companies finance themselves at lower cost. After the crisis of “yellow vests”, the State was able to support companies in difficulty.  Small businesses have held up well last year if they haven’t fallen, that doesn’t mean they are doing well. Many suffer. The treasuries continue to be strained. Another fact that puts the drop in corporate bankruptcy a bit into perspective last year, many SMEs and even a few mid-size companies have experienced difficulties. Almost 350 SMEs with more than 50 employees went to bankruptcy in 2019, almost one per day. In the last three months of the year, 100 failed. The difficulties of SMEs are concentrated in the manufacturing industry. Some face forced transformation issues linked to sustainable development, in the automobile for example. As a result of the bankruptcy of SMEs, the number of jobs threatened by bankruptcy increased slightly in 2019, by 1.6%, to 175,000. How will the coming year go? Growth is expected by economists to a level comparable to that of 2019, that is to say from 1.2% to 1.3%. For 2020, there is no fear of a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcy but it seems unlikely that we will fall below the threshold of 52,000 collective proceedings. We could be around 53,000 failures for the year 2020.

 

Hedge Fund the rise of one whom nothing predestined to become the best manager of history.

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Hedge Fund the rise of one whom nothing predestined to become the best manager of history “The man who solved the riddle of the markets” Wall Street Journal’s Greg Zuckerman’s book is the book that everyone is talking about on Wall Street. He portrays the rise of one whom nothing predestined to become the best manager of history. The mathematician Jim Simons, whose fortune exceeds 23 billion dollars, is at the origin of a UFO: the Medallion fund. Since 1988, this quantitative hedge fund has recorded an average annual gain of 66.1%, reduced to 39% after deducting its commissions. Over 20 years (1985-2004), George Soros’ hedge fund (Quantum fund) had an average annual return of 20.2%. Prize of excellence Aware of its value, the Medallion Hedge Fund has taken the highest rates in the industry, 5% of assets and 44% of profits generated through its performance. Hedge Fund typically take between 1.5% and 2% of assets and 20% of profits. Given its success, this Hedge Fund no longer accepted money from investors since 1993. In 2005, it was reserved exclusively for employees of the Hedge Fund. For Simons, this fund was to remain relatively small, less than $ 10 billion, to continue to perform well. The founder is aware of the law of diminishing returns in the financial world: the more the capital is important, the more a manager is struggling to remain as efficient.

Inconceivable In an interview with “Institutional Investor” in November 2000, the founder of Renaissance said: “Today we manage $ 4 billion, perhaps $ 7 to $ 8 billion in the future. But 70 billion, never! It is inconceivable. I am 62 years old and in the next three years I would like to pass the torch. Today the Hedge Fund manages $ 110 billion, and Jim Simons retired in 2010 while remaining involved in his company, being non-executive chairman. The Medallion has been a fantastic Hedge Fund appeal and advertising product, which has launched other funds such as Renaissance equities. He managed the increase in his assets and the change in size of his fund. “Make money when I sleep” In 1978, Jim Simons left his position as professor of mathematics at Stony Brook University to found his first Limroy Hedge Fund. Like other traders of the time, he tries to anticipate the decisions of the Federal Reserve but without much success. Yet at the time, he consulted the opinion of an economist, Alan Greenspan, who would become the president of the Fed between 1986 and 2007. His poor results prompt him to seek a trading system without human interference. “I do not want to worry about markets every minute. I want models that make me earn money when I sleep. He then embarked on quantitative management in the futures markets, particularly commodities. It speculates on potatoes, oil or pig carcasses but again the yields are random. The Hedge Fund, Renaissance Technologies, which was born in 1982, decided to move up a gear and began to build systematic and rigorous quantitative management. “There are movements and configurations in the markets that are not ‘visible to the naked eye’ by traders, but Renaissance wanted to exploit these anomalies in a systematic and rigorous way,” says Greg Zuckerman. Grey matter The fund is progressively recruiting the best mathematicians, astrophysicists, linguists, artificial intelligence specialists and computer scientists. It ensures their loyalty by allowing them to invest their bonuses in the Medallion Hedge Fund, where the average investment of employees is now around $ 50 million. Those who leave the company are subject to very strict confidentiality agreements and a non-competition clause over a very long period. It is not possible that they go into another Hedge Fund to disclose the secrets of the company.

The “home culture” of Renaissance, the antithesis of that of Hedge Fund of the time, was in three words: humility, patience, work. No star manager took positions according to his “instinct”, a word banned internally. His traders had to follow the signals of mathematical models and never take personal initiative. In fact, very few Wall Street professionals have been recruited by Renaissance who prefers to hire IBM alumni. The Medallion fund also invested some of its money in about 40 Hedge Fund. It was a way to seize opportunities that he had not identified himself while benefiting from information feedback on the markets. Data gathering. To help it achieve good market forecasts, this Hedge Fund was one of the first to recognize the importance of having as much financial data as possible. He has collected very old and good course histories. Databases often contain errors that a statistics specialist was responsible for flushing out and correcting. The fund was collecting data that was not available to its competitors: one of the contributors regularly went to the New York Fed in Manhattan to manually collect prices on bonds that were not public. Anticipating the rise of “high frequency trading” (ultra-fast trading machines), the fund invests early in technology and computers at the forefront to increase the speed of its transactions and be the first to seize opportunities. The “gross” anomalies in the markets have long since disappeared and the fund must innovate to remain efficient. “The mathematics we use can be sophisticated,” he told Institutional Investors, “but we start from data analysis, we do not have preconceived notions.” “In our business, we want action, we appreciate a certain level of volatility. In 2008, the year of the financial crisis, the Medallion fund jumped by 80%.

 

Business failures in France

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Business failures in France. It’s an encouraging signal for the French economy: French companies are less likely to experience Business failures. Their number was 10,500 in the third quarter of 2019, according to the count made by the company Altares, down 6.4% compared to the same period last year.

This is an exceptionally low level, unmatched since 2007. The improvement is notable in construction, retail, catering and personal services. Even sectors such as business services and industry – particularly agribusiness – are experiencing a decline in Business failures.

Increase in claims of large Companies

All is not rosy however, since the average size of the failing companies increases. Thus, 73 companies with more than 50 employees went to court in the third quarter for Business failures, against 56 at the same time last year. As a result, the number of jobs threatened by these Business failures is growing. Nearly 37,300 jobs are at risk, 2,350 more than in the summer of 2018. These Companies alone account for nearly one third of jobs at risk.

“It has been several quarters since the Business failures of large Companies increase quite markedly,” said Thierry Millon, director of studies of the company Altares. Children’s clothing stores Orchestra, the airlines eagle Azur and XL Airways suffered disappointments last quarter.

Threats in the fourth quarter

Why are some large Companies experiencing more Business failures than before? “The activity has been pretty good since the end of 2015, but some companies have used their money to manage their working capital needs and not to solidify their growth. Today, with the slowdown, they are in financial difficulties, “says the expert who also notes” a degradation of payment behaviour since the spring. ” Vigilance is therefore in order. With a particular focus on the fourth quarter, marked last year by increased difficulties for some businesses and in the restoration because of the movement of “yellow vests”. However, this winter, the public transport strike on the pension reform is threatening.

Signs of weakness in the automobile and construction

Without large-scale social movement, “this year, the number of Business failures should be around 53,000, down from 2018 when France had experienced 54,700 Business failures, according to Thierry Millon. Again, this would be the lowest level since 2007. Even if it should remain low next year, the loss ratio will however hard to maintain at this low water level next year. “Some sectors are showing obvious signs of weakness. This is the case of the automobile or construction for example, “said the leader of Altares. On the other hand, companies should be able to count on the expected healthy performance of household consumption.

Commercial Debt Collection and Business Bankruptcy

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Commercial Debt Collection and business bankruptcy are sometimes linked. When a file arrives in a debt collection office, when the amount of the debt recovery is high and the debtor’s situation is fragile the debt collection actions sometimes lead to the bankruptcy of the debtor company. One can therefore ask the question of the relevance of the action of the debt collection company. In reality it is not the recovery actions that led to the bankruptcy of the company it was certainly already in a state of cessation of payment. The recovery procedures are only the drops of water that broke the camel’s back. The bankruptcy procedures are mostly long and dead-end, the creditor said unsecured (the one who has no security) having very little chance of recovering what is due to him. Should we in these cases renounce recovery actions? the answer is clearly no because only the one who acts keeps a chance to get his bills paid. One of the most common prevention tips was to tell suppliers to learn about the creditworthiness of their customers and keep their credit limit under supervision. This common-sense rule now faces new difficulties. Indeed, the secret of business in a world in full transparency becomes more and more opaque. In France, for example, it is now possible for small and medium-sized businesses to make their balance sheets confidential, whereas a few years ago this was considered a crime that could be prosecuted by the public prosecutor’s office. It is no longer uncommon to see companies that are well-rated by intelligence companies suddenly go bankrupt. One of the remedies to business bankruptcy losses is to adjust the credit limit to the size of the client. It is common to see the debt collection of important files that concern very small businesses. When a company is in trouble it will rush into the arms of a supplier ready to give it credit. The salesperson will be enthusiastic about developing his turnover and everyone will fall into the trap of supplier credit. It is the exporting companies that are setting up in a new country that are most likely to fall into this kind of trap. The losses and debt collection difficulties are in fact linked to the short-term profit policy which penalizes the exporters who have not planned a moderate development and supported by a substantial budget.

Corporate insolvencies how to secure you open debts.

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Corporate insolvencies how to secure you open debts. Year-to-date, corporate insolvencies in France were up 1.5% year-on-year, compared with the same month a year earlier. On Tuesday, September 10, the Banque de France issued a press release stating that between July 2018 and June 2019, corporate insolvencies increased by 1.5% in France compared to the previous 12 months (between July 2017 and June 2018). As of June 2019, the cumulative number of corporate insolvencies over 12 months reached 53,538 units, with strong growth in the transport sectors (+ 12.6% compared with June 2018), advice and services to businesses ( + 12%) and financial and insurance activities (+ 5.1%). Deficits also “appreciably” increased in education, health and household services (+ 2.3%), agriculture (+ 1.4%), as well as accommodation and food services (+1 , 3%). The number of business failures nevertheless remains at a level close to its lows of the last 10 years. Information, real estate and construction in better shape The sectors in a better position are none other than those of information and communication (-5.7%), real estate activities (-3.4%), trade (-1.4%) and construction. (-0.5%). Which have seen the number of business failures receded. According to still provisional figures provided by the Bank of France, corporate insolvencies would have increased by 0.8% over 12 months at the end of July 2019. Finally, the institution has however specified that between April and June In 2019, business failures decreased by 2.9% compared to the previous three months.

Gevo, a French collection company specializing in international B to B collection, can help you avoid the loss of your bill if you entrust your file in time.  To say that it will work out “we will wait because it always ended up paying”, to entrust the recovery to the commercial are errors. Only a professional, recovery will give you every chance to avoid a financial loss.