Tag Archives: #Businessfailuresinfrance

In France, the number of companies having been the subject of a bankruptcy procedure decreased

anglais, News, , , , , , , ,
lower banruptcies rate

decrease of bankruptcies in France

In France, the number of companies having been the subject of a bankruptcy procedure decreased by 4.8% last year compared to 2018. There were 52,000 failures in 2019. These are 2,500 companies less than in 2018 who went to bankruptcy or were placed in receivership or safeguard proceedings. In the fourth quarter of 2019 alone, the decline even accelerated.  The improvement is visible in almost all trades. The number of liquidations has dropped significantly. In construction, trade, industry, business and personal services, and catering, bankruptcy is declining sharply. Road freight transport and IT and communications are sectors which experienced an increase in bankruptcy last year. One of the explanations for this good overall performance in 2019 is that household consumption held up even if it was not as dynamic as we might have expected. The domestic economic context is rather better than that of our neighbours. Job creation is still strong in 2019, which also contributed to good economic activity. Second, interest rates are still very low, which helps companies finance themselves at lower cost. After the crisis of “yellow vests”, the State was able to support companies in difficulty.  Small businesses have held up well last year if they haven’t fallen, that doesn’t mean they are doing well. Many suffer. The treasuries continue to be strained. Another fact that puts the drop in corporate bankruptcy a bit into perspective last year, many SMEs and even a few mid-size companies have experienced difficulties. Almost 350 SMEs with more than 50 employees went to bankruptcy in 2019, almost one per day. In the last three months of the year, 100 failed. The difficulties of SMEs are concentrated in the manufacturing industry. Some face forced transformation issues linked to sustainable development, in the automobile for example. As a result of the bankruptcy of SMEs, the number of jobs threatened by bankruptcy increased slightly in 2019, by 1.6%, to 175,000. How will the coming year go? Growth is expected by economists to a level comparable to that of 2019, that is to say from 1.2% to 1.3%. For 2020, there is no fear of a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcy but it seems unlikely that we will fall below the threshold of 52,000 collective proceedings. We could be around 53,000 failures for the year 2020.

 

Commercial desertification of the city centre is not inevitable a german small city example for revitalization.

Newsletter, , , , ,

Commercial desertification of the city centre is not inevitable.A German city of 19,000 inhabitants Wassenberg has tried an interesting experiment to put an end to the commercial desertification of the city centre.

In Wassenberg the initial observation reflected a situation “dark and desolate”

One retailer after another had to close his store. Few passers-by were lost in the shopping street. The city of 19,000 inhabitants in North Rhine-Westphalia was hoping for help. Thanks to a marketing consultant the revitalization was a success. Wassenberg has had a fate in recent years, shared by many small and medium-sized German cities: the commercial desertification of the city centre. The reasons for this situation are identical throughout Germany (as in France).

On the one hand, young people prefer to spend their money on online shopping rather than in downtown stores.

On the other hand, the big cities of the region, often through shopping centres, attract customers ready to buy. Wassenberg faced a particularly high number of competitors. Many people preferred to go shopping in Aachen, Düsseldorf, Mönchengladbach or Cologne. In addition, Wassenberg is on the Dutch border. Its inhabitants are within a 20-minute drive of a very popular factory outlet called Roermond.

 

It all started with a market analysis that consisted of studying neighbouring cities by asking the question: what do they offer in terms of businesses?

It quickly became clear that there would be no point in attracting a new H & M or Lidl as the demand for this type of product is being met by local competition bids.

The marketing expert then examined the demographics and purchasing power of the population and found that the population was mostly high-income, mature people. In order to survive as a small town against the big rivals, you had to occupy niches to fight again the commercial desertification of the City centre.

To determine these niches any offer that existed within a radius of 20 km around the city was eliminated. The commercial desertification of the city centre has been halted thanks to a new concept based on four “growth pillars”:

 

Culture,

pleasure,

tourism

and events.

 

The aim was to create themed outlets for which development potential has been identified and which do not exist in neighbouring cities.

For the “pleasure” growth pillar, restaurants have been opened.

For the “Tourism” growth pillar, new businesses have been created for hikers and leisure enthusiasts. A nature park is located near the Schwalm-Nette region, on the border of the Netherlands.

For the growth pillar “culture”, artists such as painters and musicians were approached, and they were able to choose empty stores for readings, lectures and exhibitions.

At the heart of the concept is the growth pillar “events”.

It has been set up a night market once a month. As with all other pillars, this market should only offer quality products, not cheap clothing or other hardware items such as sale. On the other hand, this new market offers home-brewed draft beer, wines, bread, cheeses and typical culinary specialties.

The market has brought people back to the city, which has also benefited existing local businesses. There was suddenly a central anchor event. In the past, people dreamed of the big city. Today, they find parties, drinks and good food in their own city. Result: citizens feel good and are connected to the city again. It is a new acceptance that has not existed for decades. Today, people say, “This is my city.”

Meanwhile, nearby cities like Erkelenz and Geilenkirchen have followed suit and have also established night markets: “Plagiarism is always the best compliment of less inspired contemporaries.”

You have to offer what the online retailer cannot offer: a combination of services and products, more personalized. Today, Amazon and local retailers often offer the same products. Then, retailers are surprised to see that people are learning and testing products locally, but then go to Amazon and order there.

The gradual disappearance of city centres is also due to the development of shopping centres. While many cities think that these huge buildings will be an economic engine, the marketing specialist of Wassenberg thinks the opposite: “These blocks of concrete make disappear the animation and the diversity of the city centres and are already gradually exceeded”, explains the expert. According to this expert, shopping centres are an indicator of urban mismanagement: architects were often responsible for designing large sales areas. Only when the buildings are in the process of completion will developers begin to look for tenants for commercial space. In fact, it would be necessary to do exactly the opposite of doing marketing studies before instead of creating commercial surfaces through architecture and only eventually to ask: who is supposed to go? ”

Instead of shopping centres, you have to rely on a concept he calls Emma Quartier. Many small shops with individual offers, which do not compete but complement each other. “I do not go downtown because I want to buy a jacket at H & M, but because I want some spice”, for example

Kirsten trusted the concept and opened her “Dumb in the Café Post” shop: “I’ve always dreamed of owning a boutique, but it’s always been difficult,” she says, and then she learns about the projects. of the city of Wassenberg in a newspaper and she said

“It’s my chance, if it’s not now, it’ll never be”

His concept, a shop where different artists can exhibit their works and where they have the opportunity to use a free workshop. She found her local thanks to the help of the municipality. In the meantime, she moved and expanded her store, so that not only artists can be staged, but one can also have breakfast in the morning and a coffee and cake in the afternoon, workshops are made available, lectures and readings are organized. The move from the periphery stores to the centre of the city was also initiated this operation was called: healthy shrinking. It is in the interest of all companies looking for qualified personnel to offer businesses and sufficient animation to motivate newcomers to settle in this type of city.

Why does it work in some cities and not at all in others? “Because this must be a top priority, if the mayor puts trade as a top priority for his city and is fighting for it, it will make the process easier. Wassenberg Mayor Manfred Winkens is looking forward to a new life in his city. “By 2020, we will propose nearly 60 different cultural events,” he said. “From art exhibitions to outdoor events such as the book market, the medieval market, cabaret nights and concerts.”

This example cannot be transposed as is in France because the concept of “ droit au bail” to lease is completely unknown in Germany. These notions are a real brake and handicap an average French city in the fight against the commercial desertification of the city centre. I was recently confronted with the following ubiquitous situation: on the outskirts of Strasbourg for a commercial space of less than 200 m2 empty for a long time and for which the owner asks a rent of 4.000 € per month the taker was obliged to fulfil a lease entitlement of € 50,000. For years, the “ droit au bail or pas de porte “ has been considered in many studies as obstacles to French growth and Europe has often expressed its wish to see a modernization reform initiated on this subject.

Georges Vonfelt GEVO Sarl

Hedge Fund the rise of one whom nothing predestined to become the best manager of history.

anglais, Blog, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

chart-1905224__340

Hedge Fund the rise of one whom nothing predestined to become the best manager of history “The man who solved the riddle of the markets” Wall Street Journal’s Greg Zuckerman’s book is the book that everyone is talking about on Wall Street. He portrays the rise of one whom nothing predestined to become the best manager of history. The mathematician Jim Simons, whose fortune exceeds 23 billion dollars, is at the origin of a UFO: the Medallion fund. Since 1988, this quantitative hedge fund has recorded an average annual gain of 66.1%, reduced to 39% after deducting its commissions. Over 20 years (1985-2004), George Soros’ hedge fund (Quantum fund) had an average annual return of 20.2%. Prize of excellence Aware of its value, the Medallion Hedge Fund has taken the highest rates in the industry, 5% of assets and 44% of profits generated through its performance. Hedge Fund typically take between 1.5% and 2% of assets and 20% of profits. Given its success, this Hedge Fund no longer accepted money from investors since 1993. In 2005, it was reserved exclusively for employees of the Hedge Fund. For Simons, this fund was to remain relatively small, less than $ 10 billion, to continue to perform well. The founder is aware of the law of diminishing returns in the financial world: the more the capital is important, the more a manager is struggling to remain as efficient.

Inconceivable In an interview with “Institutional Investor” in November 2000, the founder of Renaissance said: “Today we manage $ 4 billion, perhaps $ 7 to $ 8 billion in the future. But 70 billion, never! It is inconceivable. I am 62 years old and in the next three years I would like to pass the torch. Today the Hedge Fund manages $ 110 billion, and Jim Simons retired in 2010 while remaining involved in his company, being non-executive chairman. The Medallion has been a fantastic Hedge Fund appeal and advertising product, which has launched other funds such as Renaissance equities. He managed the increase in his assets and the change in size of his fund. “Make money when I sleep” In 1978, Jim Simons left his position as professor of mathematics at Stony Brook University to found his first Limroy Hedge Fund. Like other traders of the time, he tries to anticipate the decisions of the Federal Reserve but without much success. Yet at the time, he consulted the opinion of an economist, Alan Greenspan, who would become the president of the Fed between 1986 and 2007. His poor results prompt him to seek a trading system without human interference. “I do not want to worry about markets every minute. I want models that make me earn money when I sleep. He then embarked on quantitative management in the futures markets, particularly commodities. It speculates on potatoes, oil or pig carcasses but again the yields are random. The Hedge Fund, Renaissance Technologies, which was born in 1982, decided to move up a gear and began to build systematic and rigorous quantitative management. “There are movements and configurations in the markets that are not ‘visible to the naked eye’ by traders, but Renaissance wanted to exploit these anomalies in a systematic and rigorous way,” says Greg Zuckerman. Grey matter The fund is progressively recruiting the best mathematicians, astrophysicists, linguists, artificial intelligence specialists and computer scientists. It ensures their loyalty by allowing them to invest their bonuses in the Medallion Hedge Fund, where the average investment of employees is now around $ 50 million. Those who leave the company are subject to very strict confidentiality agreements and a non-competition clause over a very long period. It is not possible that they go into another Hedge Fund to disclose the secrets of the company.

The “home culture” of Renaissance, the antithesis of that of Hedge Fund of the time, was in three words: humility, patience, work. No star manager took positions according to his “instinct”, a word banned internally. His traders had to follow the signals of mathematical models and never take personal initiative. In fact, very few Wall Street professionals have been recruited by Renaissance who prefers to hire IBM alumni. The Medallion fund also invested some of its money in about 40 Hedge Fund. It was a way to seize opportunities that he had not identified himself while benefiting from information feedback on the markets. Data gathering. To help it achieve good market forecasts, this Hedge Fund was one of the first to recognize the importance of having as much financial data as possible. He has collected very old and good course histories. Databases often contain errors that a statistics specialist was responsible for flushing out and correcting. The fund was collecting data that was not available to its competitors: one of the contributors regularly went to the New York Fed in Manhattan to manually collect prices on bonds that were not public. Anticipating the rise of “high frequency trading” (ultra-fast trading machines), the fund invests early in technology and computers at the forefront to increase the speed of its transactions and be the first to seize opportunities. The “gross” anomalies in the markets have long since disappeared and the fund must innovate to remain efficient. “The mathematics we use can be sophisticated,” he told Institutional Investors, “but we start from data analysis, we do not have preconceived notions.” “In our business, we want action, we appreciate a certain level of volatility. In 2008, the year of the financial crisis, the Medallion fund jumped by 80%.

 

Business failures in France

anglais, News, , , , , , , , , , ,

skyscraper-3032786__340[1]

 

Business failures in France. It’s an encouraging signal for the French economy: French companies are less likely to experience Business failures. Their number was 10,500 in the third quarter of 2019, according to the count made by the company Altares, down 6.4% compared to the same period last year.

This is an exceptionally low level, unmatched since 2007. The improvement is notable in construction, retail, catering and personal services. Even sectors such as business services and industry – particularly agribusiness – are experiencing a decline in Business failures.

Increase in claims of large Companies

All is not rosy however, since the average size of the failing companies increases. Thus, 73 companies with more than 50 employees went to court in the third quarter for Business failures, against 56 at the same time last year. As a result, the number of jobs threatened by these Business failures is growing. Nearly 37,300 jobs are at risk, 2,350 more than in the summer of 2018. These Companies alone account for nearly one third of jobs at risk.

“It has been several quarters since the Business failures of large Companies increase quite markedly,” said Thierry Millon, director of studies of the company Altares. Children’s clothing stores Orchestra, the airlines eagle Azur and XL Airways suffered disappointments last quarter.

Threats in the fourth quarter

Why are some large Companies experiencing more Business failures than before? “The activity has been pretty good since the end of 2015, but some companies have used their money to manage their working capital needs and not to solidify their growth. Today, with the slowdown, they are in financial difficulties, “says the expert who also notes” a degradation of payment behaviour since the spring. ” Vigilance is therefore in order. With a particular focus on the fourth quarter, marked last year by increased difficulties for some businesses and in the restoration because of the movement of “yellow vests”. However, this winter, the public transport strike on the pension reform is threatening.

Signs of weakness in the automobile and construction

Without large-scale social movement, “this year, the number of Business failures should be around 53,000, down from 2018 when France had experienced 54,700 Business failures, according to Thierry Millon. Again, this would be the lowest level since 2007. Even if it should remain low next year, the loss ratio will however hard to maintain at this low water level next year. “Some sectors are showing obvious signs of weakness. This is the case of the automobile or construction for example, “said the leader of Altares. On the other hand, companies should be able to count on the expected healthy performance of household consumption.